Better Measurement or Larger Samples? Data Collection for Policy Learning with Unobserved Heterogeneity
[Draft]
[Slides]
[Abstract]
Empirical research shows that individuals' responses to treatments vary along latent characteristics, such as innate ability or motivation. Therefore, a policymaker seeking to maximize welfare may consider designing policies based on observed characteristics and estimated latent traits. I characterize how the estimates' precision affects the worst-case performance of policies deriving rate-sharp regret bounds for assignment rules that include or exclude them, highlighting new trade-offs with the policy space complexity. I then study how a policymaker can solve such trade-offs by designing tailored data collections, and derive the minimax optimal collection plan. In an empirical application in development economics, I show that including a proxy for entrepreneurs' business skills in targeting cash transfers increases welfare by 5%, and halves the probability of generating welfare losses. Moreover, I estimate the optimal allocation of resources between improving the precision of the proxy via repeated measurements, and increasing sample size.
Winner of Unicredit Young Economist
Best Presentation Award
BallotBot: Can AI Chatbots Lower Voter-Information Barriers?
with Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta
[Draft]
[VoxEU Column]
[Abstract]
This study examines the potential of AI-powered chatbots to increase engagement with political information. We develop and evaluate BallotBot, an AI chatbot with access to official voter guide information from the November 2024 referendums in California. In a pre-registered three-wave survey experiment in the weeks around election day, participants (California voters) were randomly assigned to use either BallotBot or a traditional digital voter guide to answer questions about ballot initiatives. We find that BallotBot access lowered the perceived cost of acquiring information for less-informed participants, fostered greater engagement with political information, while improving participants' ability to correctly answer in-depth questions about ballot measures.
Status: R&R at The Economic Journal